New Software Predicts Hit Song Potential

If you've ever considered promoting one of your songs to the masses, you've probably asked a couple of age-old questions: "Does this song sound like a hit?" and "What's the best way to promote this song?" Well, get ready for a brand-new question you may be hearing a lot more in the coming months and years: "Does this song have optimal mathematical patterns?"



That's right. The Spanish company Polyphonic HMI has developed a piece of software called Hit Song Science (HSS). A growing number of major record labels and even indie artists are using it to help predict whether new, untested songs have the potential to become pop hits. And it has a short but potent track record: HSS reportedly predicted the huge success of Norah Jones, Maroon 5 and other hot acts.



How does it work? According to an article in the Guardian, HSS "isolated and separated 20 aspects of song construction including melody, harmony, chord progression, beat, tempo and pitch and identifies and maps recurrent patterns in a song, before matching it against a database containing 30 years' worth of Billboard hit singles ... The program then accords the song a score, which registers the likelihood of it being a chart success."



Yes, that means it turns your song into a mathematical equation. Kinda makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside, doesn't it? Of course, there are detractors who deplore the cold analysis of music and point out that the score only reflects comparisons to music of the past and can't predict the breakthrough trends that only come from artistic experimentation.



But believe it or not, there is a possible upside for up-and-coming talent. For instance, an act's HSS score might actually show a record company that a baby band has more hit potential than the label's executives thought.



Plus, the software separates songs into clusters, showing which artists have similar mathematical qualities. That could help an act determine the best artists to cross-promote with. (See my Who Do You Sound Like? post for more info on why this is important.)



At least one radio station is using HSS to widen its playlist without losing listeners by "selecting songs with the correct mathematical rhythms."



Don't worry, I'm not encouraging the use of this new technology. Just wanted to make you aware of it, along with its uses and abuses. It still comes down to you creating the music you were meant to create, finding an audience and encouraging them to help you spread the buzz. In my book, that adds up to the best formula for success.

Don't Be an E-mail Idiot

I've often described e-mail this way: It's so easy to use, and so easy to abuse.



Case in point. Here's a message I received a couple of weeks ago:



Subject line: Find Live Music Venues, Musicians, Bands



Body text: "Hey, I thought you might be interested in a web site that is dedicated to helping venues, bands, and musicians network with each other all across the country ..."



At the end of the e-mail was this gem:



"You are receiving this message because your e-mail address is listed on a musician related web site and we thought you might be interested. Please note this is not SPAM, we do not have a mailing list, we do not share or sell your address to anyone ... Thanks!"



Uh, excuse me, but if you randomly grab my e-mail address off of a "musician related web site" and add me to a bulk mail list that gets your lame message, this is SPAM. If I had only received one of these messages, it might not have been so bad. But I received 17 of the exact same message. You can deny it till you're fuchsia in the face, but if you do this, you're a spammer.



It's okay to hunt down someone's e-mail address on a web site and send them a personal message. Within reason, it's also accepted to compile a small list of media people or music acquaintances and send them a sensible, relevant "bulk" e-mail.



But, for God's sake, don't use software that harvests e-mail addresses from "musician related web sites" en masse, and don't rent e-mail lists from companies that do. This is not a shortcut to reaching the masses. It's a sure-fire route to being branded an Internet jackass.



Here's another e-mail I received last week:



Body text: "Dear sir I have an eclectic original cd of cw,country pop,pop,rr,rb quasi hip hop,rb, folk, blues instrumental, etc. I would like to submit a copy for airplay. If possible email me the name of person receiving and the address, if your intrested, and I will get it right out to you in the mail."



What can I say about this one? Typos, for starters. A description that tries to be all things to all people and ends up being nothing to no one. I could go on, but you get the idea.



Conclusion: Don't be an e-mail idiot!

Who Do You Sound Like? And Why It's Important

Admit it. Most musicians hate to compare themselves to other artists. Does this describe you? If you feel you are a unique, one-of-a-kind creative being, I wholeheartedly agree with you. But if you think you shouldn't tarnish your musical identity with comparisons to other artists, I ask you to reconsider.



Why? It has everything to do with this crazy little hunk of matter called the human brain. According to the Berkeley Lab, "Humans retrieve information best when it can be linked to other related information." In other words, without a familiar reference point, people have a tough time filing away and remembering new sights, sounds, etc.



In this article by Allen Barker, he writes, "Memory is a dynamic process. It arises from reminders and cues." The process that helps the brain sort out new stimulus is called "associative memory." Barker continues, "An associative memory is a memory system that takes an input 'key' and produces the 'closest' stored memory that matches that key. If the memory had stored a picture of a chair, for example, and were presented with a 'key' of half a chair, it would fill in the remaining half of the chair."



If you think this is all impractical mumbo jumbo, check out the service being offered by Savage Beast. It's Music Genome Project is a system that analyzes music using "a set of attributes that capture not only the musical identity of a song, but also many significant qualities that are relevant to understanding the musical preferences of consumers who browse the material. Each song is analyzed along 400 distinct musical attributes to create a complete musical analysis."



Sounds deep, but in essence, the Savage Beast research works much like Amazon's "customers who bought X also purchased Y" recommendations. This is very much an extension of what I discussed in my recent Long Tail post.



Another site that understands the importance of this concept is WeSoundLike.com. The home page reads "Find new music like your favorite music! Just browse for your favorite music artists and we'll tell you the new and upcoming artists that are influenced by them!" Go to the submission page to add your act.



Convinced yet? Music fans need clues. People who enjoy your music also enjoy other artists. And many of those artists are more familiar to the masses than you are right now. So tap into the mental links that already exist in the minds of fans who support other similar-sounding artists.

'What's Wrong with American Idol?' Revisited

It's back. Season four of the hugely popular "reality" show is once again setting viewership records. I admit it's great fun to watch, but what worries me is the misguided impression the show gives the public (including aspiring artists) about the modern "realities" of pursuing a music career.



Last spring, midway through season three, I launched a personal campaign to set the record straight. Next week I will post an updated "What's Wrong with American Idol?" manifesto. In the meantime, you might enjoy hearing this radio interview I did last year with Bill Reker on KMOX (1120 AM) in St. Louis.



Check back next week for my list of American Idol myths.

Four Indie Music Sales & Exposure Sources

Today's post is all about making you aware of some cool places that can help you reach a wider audience.



The first is Magnatune, which describes itself using the slogan "We're a record label. But we're not evil." The site makes non-exclusive deals with indie artists it selects and splits the gross revenues from download sales. Read founder/owner John Buckman's page on Why I Created Magnatune and see if you agree with his philosophy. I do. Submission instructions can be found here.



On Feb. 1, my pal and fellow author Joe Taylor Jr. will launch TryTunes.com. According to Joe, it will be a daily podcast designed to drop new music right to your desktop or MP3 player. He encourages indie artists to submit their songs to the site. Read this recent blog post for more details.



Fluxblog is one of the more popular destinations among a growing number of MP3 blogs, whose owners are sometimes called "MP3Js." The purpose of an MP3 blog is to help music fans sort through the avalanche of free music now available online.



According to this article on the No Innocent Bystanders site, Fluxblog is run by Matthew Perpetua, who started posting MP3s in 2002 and now offers one or two new tracks to download on a daily basis. His site receives nearly 5,000 hits a day -- and the numbers are rising. Music fans keep coming back for the chance to hear new or obscure music, but also to read Perpetua's commentary: witty and irreverent, forthright and opinionated.



Scroll down the Fluxblog home page to the Email Fluxblog section, where you'll find submission info.



And if you are based in the U.K., check out TuneTribe, another new digital download site. This one has no sign-up fees and pays artists 80% of every purchase. Note that for tax reasons, TuneTribe can only work with artists based in the United Kingdom at this time.

Guerrilla Music Book #3 on Amazon

Pardon the horn tooting, but I'm pretty thrilled to see that the Guerrilla Music Marketing Handbook has climbed to #3 on Amazon's Music Business Book Bestsellers list. That puts it right behind Richard Branson's Losing My Virginity and Donald Passman's All You Need to Know About the Music Business.



(At least it was #3 as of this writing. The bestseller standings change often. Click here to see a screen shot.)



I can't tell you how excited I am that this book has helped so many people and been recommended so often. Just when I think the buzz may be running its course with this title, I have another record sales month. And keep in mind that all of this momentum was created using the same indie marketing principles I cover in the book. I ignored the traditional advice on how to publish and sell a book (as I encourage you to reconsider everything you've been told about how the music business works).



Until just a few months ago (when Mel Bay Publications started distributing the book to the retail market), I never pursued retail sales or distribution at all. I've rarely spent money on advertising. Instead, I decided years ago to use the Internet to reach out and go directly to the end users -- the songwriters, musicians and band members who would benefit most from my self-promotion ideas and guerrilla philosophy. It wasn't a quick-fix strategy, because it's taken years for the buzz to slowly build -- but build it has, beyond my expectations.



I hope this serves as an example for you -- that passion, positive expectations, consistent effort and a stubborn determination to avoid a regular day job can pay off ... if you have a quality product that your target market expresses an interest in.



Another thing: Amazon recently started selling the Guerrilla Music book at a 15% discount, and I sometimes sell new, autographed copies at a discount as an Amazon Marketplace title. See the book's main Amazon sales page for details. Of course, you can always order an autographed copy from the Buzz Factor site at any time.



Thanks for your support and for allowing me to keep this train rolling!

Live Guerrilla Music Marketing Workshop Audio Clip

As part of my new effort to enhance the way you get useful information from my blog and web sites, here's a six-minute audio segment from a live workshop I did last year in Nashville. On it I cover "Building a Solid Foundation" for a long-term independent music career. Enjoy!



Listen HiFi - Listen LoFi - Download It (4.2 megs)



Note: This audio segment is part of my Guerrilla Music Marketing LIVE audio CD.